Do initial conditions persist between firms? : an analysis of firm-entry cohort effects and job losers using matched employer-employee data

"Influential studies have suggested that initial conditions can have persistent effects on workers' careers within firms. It is a longstanding question among economists whether such lasting wage differentials among firms and industries are due to persistent deviations of wages from workers' skills due to contracting and market frictions, or whether they arise from permanent differences among workers' skills. However, there is currently little representative evidence on firm-entry cohort effects and few explicit tests of alternative explanations. We use information on the universe of workers from a large German manufacturing sector from matched employer- employee records to show that firm-entry cohort effects are a pervasive phenomenon for the firms we study. The cohort effects we estimate are highly heterogeneous across firms and slowly fade over time. We also find that wage premiums on the past job are lost at job displacement, and that initial positive effects on wage levels at the new job fades over time. This suggests that at least part of firm-entry cohort effects arise from transitory rents, and that initial effects from previous wages fade as workers' search for better jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Kohortenanalyse, Automobilindustrie, Berufseinmündung - Auswirkungen, Berufsverlauf, Entlassungen, zwischenbetriebliche Mobilität, Arbeitskräftemobilität, Lohnentwicklung, IAB-Linked-Employer-Employee-Datensatz

Detection of Structural Breaks in Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models

This paper develops a break detection procedure for the well-known AR(p) linear panel data model with exogenous or pre-determined regressors. The test allows for a structural break in the slope parameters as well as in the fixed effects. Breaks in the latter are not constrained by any type of cross-sectional homogeneity and are allowed to be correlated with all past information.Panel data, Structural break, Break detection

The effects of unemployment insurance on labor supply and search outcomes : regression discontinuity estimates from Germany

"This paper evaluates the impact of large changes in the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) in different economic environments on labor supply, job matches, and search behavior. We show that differences in eligibility thresholds by exact age give rise to a valid regression discontinuity design, which we implement using administrative data on the universe of new unemployment spells and career histories over twenty years from Germany. We find that increases in UI have small to modest effects on non-employment rates, a result robust over the business cycle and across demographic groups. Thus, large expansions in UI during recessions do not lead to lasting increases in unemployment duration, nor can they explain differences in unemployment durations across countries. We do not find any effect of increased UI duration on average job quality, but show that the mean potentially confounds differential effects on job search across the distribution of UI duration. However, it appears that for a majority of UI beneficiaries increases in UI duration may lead to small declines in wages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Arbeitslosenversicherung, Arbeitskräfteangebot, Arbeitsuche, Lohnhöhe, Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer, Konjunkturzyklus, geschlechtsspezifische Faktoren, matching, amtliche Statistik

Panel Data Unit Roots Tests: The Role of Serial Correlation and the Time Dimension

We investigate the influence of residual serial correlation and of the time dimension on statistical inference for a unit root in dynamic longitudinal data, known as panel data in econometrics. To this end, we introduce two test statistics based on method of moments estimators. The first is based on the generalised method of moments estimators, while the second is based on the instrumental variables estimator. Analytical results for the IV based test in a simplified setting show that (i) large time dimension panel unit root tests will suffer from serious size distortions in finite samples, even for samples that would normally be considered large in practice, and (ii) negative serial correlation in the error terms of the panel reduces the power of the unit root tests, possibly up to a point where the test becomes biased. However, near the unit root the test is shown to have power against a wide range of alternatives. These findings are confirmed in a more general set-up through a series of Monte Carlo experiments.Dynamic longitudinal (panel) data, Generalized method of moments, Instrumental variables, Unit roots, Moving average errors

The Effects of Extended Unemployment Insurance over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Estimates Over Twenty Years

One goal of extending the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) in recessions is to increase UI coverage in the face of longer unemployment spells. Although it is a common concern that such extensions may themselves raise nonemployment durations, it is not known how recessions would affect the magnitude of this moral hazard. To obtain causal estimates of the differential effects of UI in booms and recessions, this paper exploits the fact that, in Germany, potential UI benefit duration is a function of exact age which is itself invariant over the business cycle. We implement a regression discontinuity design separately for twenty years and correlate our estimates with measures of the business cycle. We find that the nonemployment effects of a month of additional UI benefits are, at best, somewhat declining in recessions. Yet, the UI exhaustion rate, and therefore the additional coverage provided by UI extensions, rises substantially during a downturn. The ratio of these two effects represents the nonemployment response of workers weighted by the probability of being affected by UI extensions. Hence, our results imply that the effective moral hazard effect of UI extensions is significantly lower in recessions than in booms. Using a model of job search with liquidity constraints, we also find that, in the absence of market-wide effects, the net social benefits from UI extensions can be expressed either directly in terms of the exhaustion rate and the nonemployment effect of UI durations, or as a declining function of our measure of effective moral hazard.

On the Complexity of the Equivalence Problem for Probabilistic Automata

Checking two probabilistic automata for equivalence has been shown to be a key problem for efficiently establishing various behavioural and anonymity properties of probabilistic systems. In recent experiments a randomised equivalence test based on polynomial identity testing outperformed deterministic algorithms. In this paper we show that polynomial identity testing yields efficient algorithms for various generalisations of the equivalence problem. First, we provide a randomized NC procedure that also outputs a counterexample trace in case of inequivalence. Second, we show how to check for equivalence two probabilistic automata with (cumulative) rewards. Our algorithm runs in deterministic polynomial time, if the number of reward counters is fixed. Finally we show that the equivalence problem for probabilistic visibly pushdown automata is logspace equivalent to the Arithmetic Circuit Identity Testing problem, which is to decide whether a polynomial represented by an arithmetic circuit is identically zero.Comment: technical report for a FoSSaCS'12 pape

The Long-Term Effects of Unemployment Insurance Extensions on Employment

The majority of papers analyzing the employment effects of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit durations focuses on the duration of the first unemployment spell. In this paper, we make two contributions. First, we use a regression discontinuity design to analyze the long-term effects of extensions in UI durations. These estimates differ from standard estimates that they incorporate differences in UI benefit receipt and employment due to recurrent unemployment spells. Second, we derive a welfare formula of UI extensions that incorporates recurrent nonemployment spells. We find that accounting for nonemployment beyond the initial spell leads to a significant reduction in estimates of the nonemployment effect of UI extensions by about 25 percent. We show this effect is only partly explained by a mechanical effect due to finite follow-up durations, and mainly arises from a lower probability of days in nonemployment in months after end of the initial nonemployment spell.

Do initial conditions persist between firms? An analysis of firm-entry cohort effects and job losers using matched employer-employee data

"Influential studies have suggested that initial conditions can have persistent effects on workers' careers within firms. It is a longstanding question among economists whether such lasting wage differentials among firms and industries are due to persistent deviations of wages from workers' skills due to contracting and market frictions, or whether they arise from permanent differences among workers' skills. However, there is currently little representative evidence on firm-entry cohort effects and few explicit tests of alternative explanations. We use information on the universe of workers from a large German manufacturing sector from matched employer-employee records to show that firm-entry cohort effects are a pervasive phenomenon for the firms we study. The cohort effects we estimate are highly heterogeneous across firms and slowly fade over time. We also find that wage premiums on the past job are lost at job displacement, and that initial positive effects on wage levels at the new job fades over time. This suggests that at least part of firm-entry cohort effects arise from transitory rents, and that initial effects from previous wages fade as workers' search for better jobs." (author's abstract)Einflussreiche Studien gehen davon aus, dass sich die Bedingungen beim Berufseinstieg langfristig auf den Berufsverlauf von Arbeitskräften im Betrieb auswirken. Obwohl es unter Wirtschaftswissenschaftlern seit langem umstritten ist, ob die anhaltenden Lohnunterschiede zwischen Betrieben und Wirtschaftszweigen auf die Persistenz qualifikationsbedingter Lohnunterschiede infolge von Vertrags- und Arbeitsmarktfriktionen zurückgeführt werden können oder auf anhaltende Qualifikationsunterschiede, gibt es nur wenige empirische Studien und Erkenntnisse über Kohorteneffekte. Auf der Basis des IAB-Linked-Employer-Employee-Datensatzes werden Daten zum Berufsverlauf in der Automobilindustrie analysiert. Es wird gezeigt, dass die Kohorteneffekte für die untersuchten Betriebe nachhaltig sind, dass es große betriebsspezifische Unterschiede gibt, und dass sich die Kohorteneffekte im Laufe der Zeit abschwächen. Erworbene Lohnprämien gehen bei Entlassungen verloren und anfängliche positive Auswirkungen auf die Lohnhöhe im neuen Betrieb nehmen mit der Zeit ab. Diese Befunde deuten darauf hin, dass Kohorteneffekte des Berufseinstiegs zumindest teilweise vorübergehender Natur sind, und dass die Auswirkungen von Löhnen aus vorherigen Beschäftigungen mit der Zeit verblassen, da die Arbeitskräfte nach besseren Stellen suchen. (IAB

The Effects of Unemployment Insurance on Labor Supply and Search Outcomes

This paper evaluates the impact of large changes in the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) in different economic environments on labor supply, job matches, and search behavior. We show that differences in eligibility thresholds by exact age give rise to a valid regression discontinuity design, which we implement using administrative data on the universe of new unemployment spells and career histories over twenty years from Germany. We find that increases in UI have small to modest effects on non-employment rates, a result robust over the business cycle and across demographic groups. Thus, large expansions in UI during recessions do not lead to lasting increases in unemployment duration, nor can they explain differences in unemployment durations across countries. We do not find any effect of increased UI duration on average job quality, but show that the mean potentially confounds differential effects on job search across the distribution of UI duration. However, it appears that for a majority of UI beneficiaries increases in UI duration may lead to small declines in wages